Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?Rele aseID=1192&What=&strArea=;&s trTime=0

In a turnaround from some recent polls showing a much closer race, a poll released today by Qunnipiac opens some daylight for Obama as it shows him with a strong 9 point lead nationally. Obama's lead is built on his strong support from young people, Afro-Americans and women as Quinnipiac reports below:

With commanding leads among women and young voters and near unanimous support from black voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 50 - 41 percent lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll of likely voters released today.

Independent voters split 44 - 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Sen. McCain has a slight 47 - 44 percent edge among men voters and a larger 49 - 42 percent lead among white voters.

But black voters back Sen. Obama 94 - 1 percent, while women support him 55 - 36 percent. Obama leads 63 - 31 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old and 48 - 44 percent among voters 35 to 54, while voters over 55 split with 45 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama.

The Democrat gets 44 percent to the Republican's 47 percent in red states, which went Republican by more than 5 percent in 2004, and leads 50 - 39 percent in purple or swing states.

"Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is solid - but it's not monolithic," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"His support in the black community is about as close to unanimous as you can get. Politicians say that the only uncertainty will be turnout. Sen. John McCain leads among white voters.

"As is usually the case, the outcome probably will be decided in the middle, among the independent voters, who are evenly split at this point."

"About one-fifth of those who voted for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries decline - so far, anyway - to come home to their party."

By a 55 - 29 percent margin, likely voters nationwide have a favorable opinion of Obama. McCain gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability.

A total of 88 percent of American voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" having a black President, but 9 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." And 86 percent say Obama's race won't affect their vote.

A total of 64 percent of voters say they are "entirely comfortable" or "somewhat comfortable" with a President who is 72 years old, while 34 percent are "somewhat uncomfortable" or "entirely uncomfortable." Because of his age, 20 percent say they are less likely to vote for McCain, while 75 percent say it won't make a difference.

The economy is the single most important issue in their vote, 53 percent of American voters say, followed by 16 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who list health care.

Obama leads McCain 53 - 39 percent among those who list the economy, 65 - 27 percent among those who cite the war and 67 - 27 percent among those worried about health care.

"We note with a grain of salt that voters tell us they're not prejudiced against Obama because of race, or that only 20 percent are worried about McCain's age," Carroll said.

Democrats say 56 - 33 percent that Obama should pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But independent voters reject the idea 50 - 35 percent and voters overall reject it 49 - 36 percent.

Bush and Iraq

Likely voters nationwide disapprove 67 - 26 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 59 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

But by a 51 - 43 percent margin, voters support McCain's plan to keep U.S. troops in Iraq without a fixed withdrawal timetable, rather than Obama's plan to begin an immediate withdrawal with an 18-month timetable.

"The overall numbers show a big partisan split on the war in Iraq. Almost three-fourths of Republicans think it was the right thing to do. Democratic denunciation is overwhelming," Carroll said. "And by the slimmest of majorities, voters back McCain's plan to keep troops in Iraq as long as it takes."

From July 8 -13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,725 likely voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.



Display:


Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

ya know the media takes the time to say, hey its july polls mean nothing,

THEN they harp on EVERY slight change in the polls, did ANY of them ever expect this race not to ebb and flow? yet when it ebbs and flows that act shocked!

OMG he is only up 3 points this is it Obama will lose!!!!

I can't wait for these 4 months to be over so the media can catch their breathe


Obama said, as Bill beamed. "Thank you, President Clinton."
by TruthMatters on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:42:04 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

The media gave a lot of coverage to the Newsweek poll, showing McCain closing. I wonder how much coverage they will give this Q poll.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:53:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Ah, 94 to 1, but race has NOTHING to do with it--nor in the primaries.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:45:12 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 1)

Uh... Black people vote 90-95% for the Democratic candidate, and have since the civil rights era.  We're more reliably Democratic than registered Dems.  Obama's actually not doing all that much better with Blacks than Gore, Kerry, Clinton, etc. did.


by Whash on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:16:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Usually the repus get 8-11% of the black vote,. not apparently now.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:37:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

So a 2% shift is really that monumental to you?

I hope a single bee doesn't fly into your yard or will you have to call the fire department for the SWARM OF ATTACKING KILLER BEES


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:00:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

It's not 2%, it's higher than that. 94 to 1 is a lot higher than 90/10.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

You said 8-11%  So on the low end, which is what it would be, that is a 92-8 vs. 94-6...I mean really, you are going to argue with your own math?


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Excuse me, 94 to 1 is a 93 point spread. Usually it would be 90 to 10 which is a 10 point spread. I'm NOT arguing with my own math.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:18:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

94% of a BIG pie is a lot more (none / 0)

than 94% of a small pie.

You are all overlooking the importance of black turnout.  It's likely to be disproportionately large in the general election.  So it's nice that the black percentage is just a little higher (nearly unanimous), but don't forget that a big turnout means 94% of a much bigger pie.


by Dumbo on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:28:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 94% of a BIG pie is a lot more (none / 0)

I didn't say anything about turnout, I'm talking %'s.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and with the margin of error (none / 0)

it may still be 90-10.

First of all, this is a more Democratic year, so you have more people across the board voting Democratic. More white men, more women, more evangelicals even. My uncle, for example, has voted Republican since Reagan and was voting Democratic whether it was Obama or Clinton (he's black). So that may explain a 2% shift, or more, to 92-8, where it still might be.

94-1 means 5% are still undecided. With the MOE that number can be anywhere from 90-10 to 98-2.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 02:16:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (1.00 / 1)

Sounds like they are a lot smarter than the current 20% Clinton voters that decline to vote Obama.
I wonder if any of those people care about  race, that number sounds eerily familiar to our less sophisticated voters in the Appalachian mountain, 1 in 5, htat said race did have to with their vote.  
Democrat for the democratic nominee
by KLRinLA on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Well I guess, as one of the 20%--actually it was up to 43% in another poll, I guess I'm just not smart enough to figure that out.  After all the Obama supporters are on a higher plain of mankind (just like him) right up there with Plato and Aristotles. Why they even respond to us peons is remarkable in and of itself.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Well, we are just giving you your wanted attention, with your racy openers.  
elle oh elle
Democrat for the democratic nominee
by KLRinLA on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:47:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

I don't want attention anymore than you do. I want HRC on the ticket and also to point out a few things about the recent primary season-in particular the media coverage.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:48:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Fine, but you have a ham headed way of getting to your point.  I am open to the suggestion of Hillary as VP, but not as prez.  I also refuse to hold our Nominee hostage, but the numbers should be analayzed by Obama's campaign to see the potential for benefit to winning, getting a well suited VP for his agenda, and making sure he can mitigate the heavy partisanship within the nation.


Democrat for the democratic nominee
by KLRinLA on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

"Why they even respond to us peons is remarkable in and of itself."

It's because we pity you, actually.


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

This may be true, but the point is not lost that during the primary season, blacks were a monolithic voting block in favor of Barack Obama.  If Barack Obama were a white skinned man, do you honestly believe that he would have had such solid support in the black community?  I venture to say "no".  

This is not an indictment about black America's vote, but just an observation.  I understand the excitement about being able to vote for a black candidate for president, especially one that seems to have the best chance ever to become president, but it doesn't make it any less true that, not suprisingly, there was major voting based on racial preference in that community.


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:59:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Same with Hillary and women though to be honest.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:01:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 1)

Oh yeah like HRC got 94% of white women behind her?  Give me a major league break.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:02:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

She got a major boost from female turnout overall and won that group by a large margin in most cases.  Someone with unfavorables in the 50s doesn't do that well without a devoted core constituency turning out for them.

Besides, you guys ran a really crappy campaign and lost because of that, not 'because of the blacks'


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:06:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 1)

Actually she ran an excellent campaign, winning the popular vote and raising over 200 million (including 500 bucks of mine).  It wasn't Hillary's fault that the mainstream media drooled over Obama, and kissed his ass from day one.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:17:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poor, poor me. (none / 0)

My candidate lost.  Those nasty blacks are so biased.


by Dumbo on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Poor, poor me. (none / 0)

It's remarkable how it's considerwed racist to point out the truth of racial block voting.   Sorry to point out the truth.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's racist to bitch and moan about it. (none / 0)

when the nomination battle is over.  For most of last year, I read post after post by many on here and on Dailykos telling me that if Obama won the nomination, he couldn't possibly win the general election because white voters wouldn't vote for him.  

And now, Hillary is a victim of reverse discrimination by black voters!  (That is the allegation you are making.)

The nomination is over.  Nobody cares if you feel cheated by black voters.  If they vote for the Democrat because they are proud of him, not because they fear McCain's race, that is a huge plus for our side.


by Dumbo on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:11:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

well at least we can stop arguing with you since we know you arent interested in facts now.


by falseintellect on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

And what are those praytell. Are you saying that the media didn't kiss his ass from day one?


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:53:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

When you have $150 million dollars and are BROKE BY IOWA then you didn't run an excellent campaign.  When your chief strategist doesn't understand proportional delegates then you didn't run an excellent campaign.  When you completely ignore the possibility that you might have to run after Super Tuesday and flail helplessly because you never planned for it you did not run an excellent campaign.

But sure, it was totally the media's fault.


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 02:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

If she had run an excellent campaign, she would have won. And she wouldn't be in debt and having to beg Obama's supporters to aid her instead of focusing on aiding their own candidate.


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

She won a majority of the voters, especially the REGISTERED DEMOCRATS (not DEMS for a day or INDIES)and she did it despite having the worst press in history.  Numerous surveys have pointed out that the coverage of Saint Barack of the Inspired Media's coverage was over 80% favorable from last summer to February 5th. Again sorry to confuse you with the facts.  Seeya tomorrow, have to go, won't be able to respond.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:58:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

"She won a majority of the voters"

Which means precisely squat. If she didn't know about the delegate system, then she's too ignorant to be president.

"especially the REGISTERED DEMOCRATS (not DEMS for a day or INDIES)"

You mean Obama won among the demographics he'll be needing to win in November? Right. And that's a point to Hillary's favor how exactly?

"and she did it despite having the worst press in history"

And somehow that press would have magically become better once she won the nomination?

"Again sorry to confuse you with the facts."

You have a strange understanding of the word "facts" -- you seem to think it means "irrelevant trivia". Whether she won the popular vote is an irrelevant piece of trivia --- whether she won the registered Dems is an irrelevant piece of trivia. Nothing in the election rules indicates that those metrics matter one bit: so they're both irrelevant pieces of trivia.

Facts are that she had started the race with huge advantages of name recognition -- a hundred superdelegates lead, before the first vote had been cast.

And Obama's team were good enough campaigners that they overcame that lead.


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:12:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Many of the supers had said they would support the winner of the popular vote-what happened to that?  Why was Obama awarded delegates in Michigan when he wasn't even on the BALLOT, and then 4 delegates were taken away.  Why was he awarded ANY delegates in Fl when he had run commercials there thus breaking the pledge?  Why wasn't he penalized for that?


by handsomegent on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:40:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

In addition, Clinton's name recognition and early super support turned out to be a liability in that it allowed Saint Barck, His Holiness to portry himself as the little engine that could.  What about polls that the media ignored leading up to Iowa as opposed to polls they stressed?  What about Oprah and her BS that she was never involved in politics when she had appeared with Jesse jackson in 1988? What about the disproportionate awarding of delegates to black majority senatorial districts?. Yes Obama played the system, and it was rigged in this "media darling's" favor.


by handsomegent on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 09:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Many of the supers had said

Really? List them. I only remember two or three of them ever saying that -- unlike you I'd been following Demconwatch. "Many"? In your dreams, buster.

Why was Obama awarded delegates in Michigan when he wasn't even on the BALLOT

Why was CLINTON awarded any delegates there from a primary she herself had admitted invalid? Because the party bent over backwards to kiss her ass -- it was an utter disgrace that they gave her ANY delegate advantage in that state or Florida either -- but her loony supporters are ofcourse still ungrateful and never satisfied, no matter how much ass-kissing is done towards Clinton.


by Aris Katsaris2 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 03:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Um.  She had better coverage in the media prior to Iowa.  She was the inevitable, unflappable, flawless candidate for ages.  That was the narrative.  Her campaign made no mistakes.  Any she actually made were avoided in the media to maintain the narrative.

That lasted until the debate where she came out in favor of Spitzer's plan to give illegals driver's licenses.

Obama wasn't the media's darling on "day one."  You are entitled to your own opinion but not to your own set of facts.  Were you politically aware during 2007 or not?


by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

That is absolute bullshit.  Did you see the "FAVORABLE" coverage she got during the October 30th debate (the one where that Obama asslicker Tim Russert asked him what he was going to be for Halloween)?  That was LONG before the Iowa caucus.  Or how about the Fox Republican debate where an ENTIRE SEGMENT was devoted to allowing their candidates to bash Clinton.  Or back to the Oct 30 debate where 24 of 52 questions mentioned the Clintons in the body of the question?  Or how about even earlier than that when ABC Sports allowed Obama to open up its football coverage for the season on national TV?


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Man you are bitter.  Don't you have some guns and god to cling to?


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 02:14:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

No, Hillary borrowed his gun to go pheasant hunting. Afterwards, she will be stopping in the local pub for a shot w/ a beer chaser.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:00:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No, but there was a significant (none / 0)

gender gap, which wasn't explainable through other demographics.

I think the whole point here is that identity politics DO exist, and have a significant impact on elections.  I'm sure we'd all prefer if voters ignored race and gender and based their preference solely on policy, experience or character.  But we all have our prejudices, conscious or no, and this is how they show up.


by corph on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

HRC didn't get 94% of white women behind her, because Obama didn't lose 94% of white women.

Unlike Clinton who decided not to contest the black demographic, not to contest the caucuses, not to contest pretty much everything except the big states. (and oh, what a wonder, the things she didn't bother to contest she ended up losing)


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (1.00 / 2)

She did try to contest the black vote.  Where do you get off writing this bs?  Yeah, like she wanted less than 10% of the black vote. She was hamstrung by the Obama campaign which effectively used race baiting to annihilate her in the black community.


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

A person that tries to contest the black vote, doesn't let her surrogates speak about "shucking and jiving", doesn't diss MLK in favour of LBJ, doesn't have her husband present Obama as the black candidate in the mold of Jesse Jackson, doesn't choose to emphasize how the majority of WHITE hard-working voters were for her (as if they are the votes that really count, you know, unlike the votes of silly black people), doesn't bash Obama for attending Wright's church, doesn't focus on flimsy connections with Farrakhan to scare away white voters from Obama.

At some point, early on, she completely abandoned all efforts to woo the black vote -- same as with caucuses she chose to simply surrender them to Obama and focus her attentions elsewhere.

Same as with the caucus votes, this was a mistake on her part.

Your talk about "race-baiting" is itself annoyingly contemptuous. How did Obama manage this great feat of fooling 95% of black people to believe Clinton was dissing them? Don't these silly black people have minds of their own? Can't they determine on their own if Clinton's dissing them or not?


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 04:33:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If she had 94% if white women behind her (none / 0)

she would've won.

Fact is white women don't vote Democratic in the numbers African-Americans do.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 02:17:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

You are not being honest with this comment.  Hillary obviously gained some support from females because of her gender, but it was no where near how African Americans swarmed to Barack Obama.  And yes, I have seen videos in which blacks admit voting for the black man.


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Maybe it has to do (none / 0)

with the fact that African-Americans just plain don't like McCain.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:27:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

80% of Jews vote for the Democratic party. So don't go there Mr.
You are on dangerous land.
Obama/Biden 08
by W126 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:28:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

I'll go where I choose to--and I believe the Jewish vote is more like 70% Democratic in presidential elections not 80%.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Black Americans supported Clinton allthrough 2007 as they did the Clintons in every election they stood. Whenever Clinton runs again. In 2012 for the Senate or for the Presidency. Blacks will be there for her again. As they do for every Democratic candidate.

So don't go there Mr.


Obama/Biden 08
by W126 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:32:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (1.50 / 2)

I will dear and don't threaten me.  To say outloud that AA's supported Obama because of racial pride is the ONE thing that aggravates his lemmings the most. After all Michelle said that blacks supporting Clinton in SC was a result of the "legacy of slavery"-one of the underreported gems of this campaign. It is true that blacks supported the Clinons in the past but I'm talking about THIS year.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:53:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Yeah, they didn't support your candidate so fuck 'em right?


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Just pointing out the truth, something which the O fanatics don't enjoy hearing.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:03:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 1)

elle oh elle


Tony Romo for Secretary of Awesome
by kasjogren on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Is that supposed to mean something?


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:12:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

try a little harder, I'll give you a hint, LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Why do all pumas have ZERO sense of humor.  It must take a miserable grunt to hang with the ranks of those losers.


Democrat for the democratic nominee
by KLRinLA on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So what is your point? (none / 0)

What do you want us to take from the fact that 90% of AA voters support Obama?


by JJE on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:16:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

TRed for stereotyping (1.00 / 1)

and flame-baiting.


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:10:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: TRed for stereotyping (none / 0)

What the hell is "flame-baiting"?  And you can TR me all you like I don't give a shit anymore.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:13:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Of course you don't. (none / 0)

Flame-Bating: (v) use of words in an intentional effort to hamper discourse, cause offense, and lower the overall IQ of a discussion group by ten or more points.  Typically instantiated with the use of sweeping prejudicial labels or insults.

Usage Example: "All (members of a group) are (derogatory descriptive)."

May be indistiguishable from statements made by brain-damaged fascist thugs.


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

"To say outloud that AA's supported Obama because of racial pride"

To say that every single person of a particular demographic had one specific reason for supporting a candidate, is by itself stupid.

Personally, I think Clinton would have done much better among black people, if she had more strictly controlled her surrogates and their comments about "shuck-and-jiving", about drug-dealing, about "black hip friends", about how privileged black people are supposedly in politics, about how even Jesse Jackson won in South Carolina, etc, etc, etc.

But ofcourse St. Hillary never did anything wrong, according to you. It was just "racial pride in Obama" and none of her fault at all that she so thoroughly lost the black vote. One wonders why Latinos didn't show similar racial pride in Richardson.


by Aris Katsaris2 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

76-24 in 2004 actually (none / 0)

link

Recall James A. Baker's famous line "F*** the Jews.  They don't vote for us anyway."

The Jewish community is a progressive bunch.  It's too bad they have people like Joementum claiming to represent them.


by corph on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

You went there, huh?


No way. No how. No McCain!
by spacemanspiff on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:38:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

So what are you saying? (none / 0)

What is the point of your post?


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:13:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Blacks don't automatically vote for the black candidate. They didn't vote for Al Sharpton in 2004.

If you were watching the polls at the beginning of the primaries, you'd know that Obama didn't start out with the level of black support that he ultimately got. At the beginning of the primaries, Hillary led Obama by double digits among black women, and she only trailed him by single digits among black men. Over the course of the primary, that changed. Which proves it's not about race - Obama didn't get any blacker during the primaries, after all.


by Angry White Democrat on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:49:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

This poll was a great relief. I don't totally buy that these early polls are irrelevant because they are guide to the electorate's state of mind and narrow leads indicates ambivalence about Obama. This suggests the ambivalence is on the decline although the suggestion that 25% of Hillary supporters are still unhappy is a situation that needs to be dealt with.


by ottovbvs on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:47:25 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

In all fairness if that number is correct I would imagine it's 25% of her primary support, which would come out to 4.5 million unhappy people.  I'm not saying that's a small number, but it isn't the earthquake some make it out to be.  4.5 million unhappy people does not equal 4.5 million McCain voters.

It all depends on how this is handled, and how the two candidates behave (McCain and Obama, obviously).


by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:31:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

It depends where we 25% are situated--and I believe it's closer to 35%.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:46:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Is your belief based on any empirical data or just your gut?


by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:49:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

Well 32% for example in another poll over the weekend of Clinton supporters would "stay home" on election day while an additional 11% would vote for McCain.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:54:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (none / 0)

...I don't see any need to address the sour grapes and dixiecrats.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:16:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (none / 0)

Well I do have a sour grape taste in my mouth but I am from New England.


by handsomegent on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:18:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (2.00 / 5)

You see, it is unthoughtful responses like your's that will get the Democrats in trouble in the general election.  Please, go ahead with you nose up in the air until election day.  Your attitude does more to hurt the unity of the Democratic party than anything that a disgruntled Hillary supporter can do.   It plays to the arrogance that many people believe Mr. Obama and his wife possess.  You are a perfect example of that.

But that's ok by me because I am one of those many disillusioned Democrats that is very close to spiting the Democratic party come the general election.  

And let me answer those who will wonder "how could you vote Republican if you say your are a Democrat", or "you never were a Democrat if you vote for McCain".  I proudly voted Democrat since my first vote was cast back in 1980.  That means that the only Democratic winner that I have ever been fortunate enough to vote for in a general election was Bill Clinton, the Democrat that so many of you faux Democrats have recently attempted to defile.  Now you all want me to cast my lot with you after many of you have denigrated the Clinton name.  I do not feel the desire to support people that I consider to be treacherous, so I will not fall in line.  The ironic thing is the Obama could have had my vote toward the beginning of the year, but that chance has come and gone.  It's only after seeing all of the Clinton hate in the blogosphere, and on the MSM that the chance for my vote evaporated.

As for Hillary, bless her soul.  She is turning off her emotions and being that "good" Democrat who will arguably be blamed for an Obama defeat in the general election.  She can't win either way.  


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (2.00 / 1)

Hmmmm, so now we're "voting by number" interesting, but I guess that's what kids are into these days....whatever, for me I'll voting country before party.

BTW- I was an Obama supporter until early this year when I started picking up a weird vibe...sure enough his immaturity and that of the Democratic Party came shining thru...yeah, not at all what I'm looking for in a President. So good luck with that...meanwhile there are many other candidates out there, but for me I'm pretty comfortable with putting someone in the office who mirrors how I feel about myself...intelligent, thinks things thru and has not waverd one iota from their beliefs...oh and who possesses a great sense of humor and a thick skin...


by artsykr on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's nice (none / 0)

that you have such healthy self-esteem.


by JJE on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It seems I removed my Sig line prematurely. (none / 0)

It used to say:

"I don't give a shit whom you vote for."

And I really, don't.  It's a free country.  I would fight for your right to vote for any shithead you want.  Try to blackmail somebody who cares.

But please don't try to blow smoke up my ass with your line about arrogance.  Obama is ahead and has been for a long time.  The economy is getting worse.  They have an unpopular war that is costing us a fortune.  They have a candidate in his 70s.  And you try as hard as you can to ignore the fact that the polls consistently show us ahead.  Your whining pleas for attention are pathetic.


by Dumbo on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It seems I removed my Sig line prematurely. (1.00 / 1)

No need for a sig line.  The first 4 letters in your name says it all.

:)


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (2.00 / 1)

We're winning without you.  

We will win without you.

We'd love to have you.  You are welcome.  You would be valued, among friends.  But don't imagine that you are indispensible.


by Reaper0Bot0 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As long as his poll numbers are healthy... (none / 0)

I understand, but it works both ways.  I am also valued by and candidate that is running against Barack Obama.


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill Clinton defiled his own legacy... (none / 0)

...he didn't need any help from the blogosphere.

And this election is not about you and your hurt feelings and how people in the MSM made you upset and said mean things.

This election is about a night and day difference beyween key issues.


I attended PUMACon '08!!!
by iohs2008 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 01:00:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bill Clinton defiled his own legacy... (none / 0)

Yeah, issues in which no one can be certain that Obama will stand for our best interests.  He's started flipping already, and he hasn't even been elected.  That sure gives me a feeling of security about where in stands on issues.

Oh, and by the way, this election is about each and every one of us, not just Obama supporters.


by Demogrunt on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:14:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

and Obama (none / 0)

STILL was ahead.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 at 02:20:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

I read some time back that McCain was going to try to cut into the black vote, looks like that is really working out. He has it all the way up to one.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 09:49:56 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 2)

With the margin of error, its entirely possible McCain has negative support.


John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:09:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

"With the margin of error, its entirely possible McCain has negative support."

That's definitely believable, McCain is a pretty negative guy.


The man who reads nothing at all is better educated than the man who reads nothing but newspapers. -- Thomas Jefferson
by pollbuster on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

He will try to emulate what Bush done in 2000. Where he will try to go for Black votes but the target is really for White Americans as he wants to appear to be 'modern and in touch'.


Obama/Biden 08
by W126 on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:35:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (2.00 / 1)

Marc Ambinder wrote yesterday both campaigns had internal polls showing Obama leads up to nine points - and they looked (as this poll does) at likely voters.

So this poll is really not out of line with what the campaigns are looking at and it certainly is in sync with the state polls.

Also note that McCain has not led in a single poll since Obama clinched. Not one.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:27:10 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:27:16 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

I always say that polls this far out are fairly meaningless. However, the breakdown of demographics can prove interesting. There are a couple in this poll that made me sit up and take notice.

"women support him 55 - 36 percent" This is very encouraging, since women make up more than half of actual voters.

"Democrats say 56 - 33 percent that Obama should pick New York Sen. Hillary Clinton as his running mate. But independent voters reject the idea 50 - 35 percent and voters overall reject it 49 - 36 percent." This seems much more negative than I would have believed. I wish they would have broken out the Republican split on this question. I'll have to look at the actual breakdown on their web site.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 10:46:51 AM EST

The question (none / 0)

about Hillary as VP is whether he "should" pick her; the better question is whether you'd be more or less likely to vote for an Obama/Hillary ticket.  She scored a 19-24 split, which sounds bad until you take into consideration that every other potential VP that I've seen Quinniapiac poll, including McCain VPs, has about the same split even in their respective state.  So she's performing just as well as some senators/governors in their own states.


by Blazers Edge on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:10:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The question (none / 0)

Good point.


"The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good." Samuel Johnson
by MS01 Indie on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:15:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Most surprising stat (none / 0)

is how well Obama is performing against McCain among those 55+.  He's performing much better in this poll among this demo than in any other polls that I've seen.  Obama would still have around a 4-6 point lead even if Quinnipiac is wrong.

Average out Newsweek and Quinnipiac and you have a six-point lead, Bill's margin over Bush I in 1992.  I'll take that.  McCain is at 41% in both the Newsweek and Quinnipiac poll.


by Blazers Edge on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:12:54 AM EST

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

I predict these as well as other poll numbers will change.


by QTG on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:29:21 AM EST

This poll (none / 0)

doesn't say much for men, does it?


by ReillyDiefenbach on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 11:31:05 AM EST

Nope. (none / 0)

The majority of male voters from 2004 were, to put it charitably, idiots.  Thank God women obtained the right to vote.


by corph on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 12:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Q Poll: Obama opens 9 point lead (none / 0)

A short instructional film on how to deal with PUMA's

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF2erYQWI Os


"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"
by nogo postal on Tue Jul 15, 2008 at 03:14:49 PM EST


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